Validation Case

Problem & JTBD, a hypothesis register with validation clocks, evidence with provenance, and bottom-up market sizing.

T2T1T2

Critical hypotheses

Validated

48%

Evidence coverage

71%

Venture Guide: One validation case lacks evidence on a critical hypothesis — lock the evidence before you trust the market numbers.

Lock the problem & JTBD

State the problem, job-to-be-done and the ICP hypothesis.

Dogfood-demo: Clearly-labelled dogfood demo: the 6 companies (MyStdy · Servicely · DifferenZ · Exponic · Digna · Kollied) are companies Espen holds a stake in, used ONLY as demo data to exercise the engines — never as proof that venture building works. Every demo row is flagged dogfood and held out of every client-facing aggregate (DEL 98-3).

Problem & JTBD

Problem statement + job-to-be-done + ICP hypothesis (demo: Servicely).

ProblemService businesses lack an operational backbone (plan → deliver → invoice)

JTBD“Get the job planned, delivered and invoiced without losing oversight”

ICP hypothesisNordic service SMBs, 5–50 employees, field-heavy

Hypotheses — validation clocks

Each hypothesis is critical-or-not, with its own clock + kill criterion. Bucketed via the clocksDue engine.

1 overdue · 1 soon · 1 later (closed clocks are not shown)

Service SMBs pay for an operational backbonecriticaloverdue

kill criterion: No paid pilot by the deadline → kill · clock 2026-06-15

Onboarding < 1 day drives activationcriticaldue soon

kill criterion: < 40% activation in 30 days → invalidated · clock 2026-06-22

Accounting integration lowers churnlater

kill criterion: No churn effect in 90 days → drop · clock 2026-08-01

Evidence

Evidence with provenance + evidence class (register beats self-report).

3 customer interviews (class 4)Self-report — supports the problemprovenance: interview note, tenant-isolated

Industry NACE volume (class 2)Register-verified account baseprovenance: Brønnøysund/Enin

1 paid pilot (class 3)Document — underwayprovenance: pilot agreement

Market — bottom-up sizing

TAM/SAM/SOM computed bottom-up; every figure is click-to-source.

tam = totalAccounts × averageContractValueNok; sam = tam × serviceableShare; som = sam × obtainablePenetration

TAM960 000 000 NOKTAM = 80000 accounts × 12000 NOK/account = 960000000 NOK

SAM336 000 000 NOKSAM = 960000000 NOK × 0.35 serviceable share = 336000000 NOK

SOM13 440 000 NOKSOM = 336000000 NOK × 0.04 obtainable penetration = 13440000 NOK

Problem statementJob-to-be-done

Live commit · demo store

Validation Case

Lock the problem & JTBD

Problem & JTBD

Hypotheses — validation clocks

Evidence

Market — bottom-up sizing

Set the hypotheses

Attach the evidence

Size the market